How the 2020 Economic Crisis Compares to the Great Depression: Causes, Effects, and Policy Responses

Will the 2020 Economic Crisis Turn into a Great or Greater Depression?

The year 2020 has been marked by a global pandemic that has caused unprecedented disruptions to the world economy. Millions of people have lost their jobs, businesses have shut down, and governments have implemented massive stimulus packages to mitigate the effects of the crisis. Many people are wondering how bad this recession is and whether it could turn into a depression similar to or worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The Great Depression was the longest and deepest economic downturn in modern history. It lasted from 1929 to 1939 and affected almost every country in the world. The US economy contracted by about 30% and the unemployment rate reached almost 25%. The causes of the Great Depression are still debated, but some of the factors that contributed to it were:

• The stock market crash of 1929, which wiped out billions of dollars of wealth and triggered a wave of panic and pessimism.
• The collapse of the banking system, which resulted from a lack of regulation, excessive speculation, and widespread bank runs.
• The contraction of international trade, which was caused by protectionist policies, such as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, that raised tariffs on thousands of imported goods.
• The failure of monetary and fiscal policies, which were either too tight or too late to respond to the crisis.

The Great Recession of 2007-2009 was the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression. It lasted for 18 months and affected most countries in the world. The US economy contracted by about 4% and the unemployment rate peaked at 10%. The causes of the Great Recession are also complex, but some of the factors that played a role were:

• The housing bubble and subprime mortgage crisis, which led to a collapse of the housing market and a financial crisis that threatened the stability of the global financial system.
• The contagion effect, which spread the crisis from the US to other countries through trade and financial linkages.
• The lack of coordination and cooperation among policymakers, which resulted in inconsistent and inadequate responses to the crisis.

The COVID-19 recession of 2020 is still unfolding and its full impact is yet to be seen. However, based on some preliminary data and forecasts, we can make some comparisons with the previous recessions. Some of the similarities and differences are:

• The speed and magnitude of the contraction. The COVID-19 recession has been much faster and sharper than the previous recessions. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis¹, real GDP fell by 5% in the first quarter of 2020 and by 32.9% in the second quarter, which is the largest quarterly decline on record. By comparison, real GDP fell by 3.7% in the fourth quarter of 2008, which was the worst quarter during the Great Recession². According to a study by David C. Wheelock³, real GNP fell by 8.6% in the first quarter of 1930 and by 6.4% in the second quarter, which were the worst quarters during the Great Depression.

• The nature and duration of the shock. The COVID-19 recession has been caused by an exogenous shock that is unrelated to the underlying structure or performance of the economy. It has been triggered by a public health emergency that required lockdown measures and social distancing to contain the spread of the virus. This has resulted in a sudden and massive disruption of both supply and demand across various sectors of the economy. The duration and severity of this shock depend largely on how quickly and effectively the pandemic can be controlled and how well people can adapt to new ways of living and working. By contrast, both the Great Depression and the Great Recession were caused by endogenous shocks that originated from within the economic system. They were triggered by financial crises that exposed structural weaknesses and imbalances in the economy. These shocks took longer to unfold and required deeper structural adjustments to overcome.

• The policy response. The COVID-19 recession has elicited an unprecedented policy response from governments and central banks around the world. According to data from OECD¹, fiscal measures amounting to about 10% of GDP have been announced or implemented in major economies as of June 2020¹. These include direct spending, tax relief, loans, guarantees, and equity injections to support households, businesses, health care systems, and public services. According to data from IMF², monetary policy measures include interest rate cuts, asset purchases, liquidity injections, foreign exchange interventions, and regulatory relief to ease financial conditions and ensure credit flow². These policy actions have been swift, coordinated, flexible, and sizable compared with previous recessions. For example, during the Great Depression, fiscal policy was largely contractionary until the New Deal programs were launched in 1933³. Monetary policy was also restrictive and ineffective due to the gold standard and the lack of a lender of last resort³. During the Great Recession, fiscal policy was initially expansionary but soon turned to austerity in many countries⁴. Monetary policy was aggressive but faced the zero lower bound and political constraints⁴.

Based on these comparisons, we can conclude that the COVID-19 recession is different from the previous recessions in many ways. It is not likely to turn into a depression similar to or worse than the Great Depression, as long as the pandemic can be contained and the policy support can be sustained. However, there are still many uncertainties and risks that could derail the recovery and cause long-term damage to the economy. Some of these risks are:

• The resurgence of the virus and the need for renewed lockdowns, which could prolong the disruption of economic activity and erode consumer and business confidence.
• The premature withdrawal or exhaustion of policy support, which could lead to a fiscal cliff and a credit crunch that could trigger a wave of bankruptcies and defaults.
• The scarring effects of the crisis, such as permanent job losses, reduced labor force participation, lower investment, impaired productivity, increased inequality, and higher debt burdens, which could lower the potential growth rate of the economy.
• The geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, which could disrupt global supply chains and markets and undermine international cooperation and coordination.

Therefore, it is important to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing these challenges and to seize the opportunity to build a more resilient and inclusive economy for the future.